Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 10370 | 44887 | 326 | 97 | 348 | 561 |
| January 26 2021 | 10389 | 44979 | 330 | 97 | 330 | 533 |
| January 27 2021 | 10454 | 45151 | 335 | 97 | 348 | 533 |
| January 28 2021 | 10475 | 45305 | 335 | 97 | 351 | 494 |
| January 29 2021 | 10498 | 45438 | 335 | 97 | 365 | 476 |
| January 30 2021 | 10530 | 45592 | 336 | 98 | 353 | 471 |
| January 31 2021 | 10554 | 45664 | 338 | 98 | 321 | 448 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.4 | 9% | 29 | 0.25% | 39 | 0.34% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 3.4 | 13.1% | 42 | 0.31% | 58 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 5.4 | 19.6% | 63 | 0.3% | 89 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.3 | 14% | 45 | 0.33% | 69 | 0.51% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 4.6 | 13.7% | 44 | 0.42% | 70 | 0.67% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 4.0 | 12.5% | 40 | 0.32% | 51 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 3.0 | 10.3% | 33 | 0.29% | 41 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.0 | 7.8% | 25 | 0.24% | 31 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 24 | 29.1 | 100% | 321 | 0.31% | 448 | 0.43% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 6693 | 26544 | 200 | 76 | 239 | 398 |
| January 26 2021 | 6710 | 26597 | 201 | 77 | 226 | 367 |
| January 27 2021 | 6737 | 26668 | 201 | 77 | 224 | 382 |
| January 28 2021 | 6769 | 26731 | 202 | 77 | 235 | 340 |
| January 29 2021 | 6787 | 26781 | 203 | 79 | 244 | 333 |
| January 30 2021 | 6801 | 26841 | 204 | 80 | 241 | 317 |
| January 31 2021 | 6822 | 26892 | 204 | 80 | 223 | 309 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.7 | 7.6% | 17 | 0.22% | 24 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 2.0 | 13% | 29 | 0.35% | 42 | 0.5% |
| 20-29 | 3 | 2.7 | 13.5% | 30 | 0.42% | 38 | 0.53% |
| 30-39 | 3 | 3.6 | 17.9% | 40 | 0.48% | 55 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 1 | 2.9 | 14.8% | 33 | 0.43% | 47 | 0.61% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.4 | 14.8% | 33 | 0.34% | 45 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.6 | 7.6% | 17 | 0.2% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 1 | 2.3 | 10.8% | 24 | 0.34% | 34 | 0.48% |
| All ages | 21 | 20.1 | 100% | 223 | 0.34% | 309 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 5036 | 17730 | 213 | 68 | 196 | 299 |
| January 26 2021 | 5043 | 17767 | 213 | 69 | 182 | 283 |
| January 27 2021 | 5059 | 17823 | 216 | 69 | 170 | 287 |
| January 28 2021 | 5087 | 17879 | 216 | 69 | 176 | 282 |
| January 29 2021 | 5108 | 17900 | 217 | 69 | 195 | 268 |
| January 30 2021 | 5122 | 17929 | 217 | 71 | 193 | 261 |
| January 31 2021 | 5134 | 17970 | 217 | 71 | 184 | 245 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.3% | 6 | 0.11% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 1 | 2.3 | 13% | 24 | 0.44% | 35 | 0.64% |
| 20-29 | 1 | 1.6 | 13% | 24 | 0.53% | 35 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 1 | 1.6 | 11.4% | 21 | 0.39% | 27 | 0.5% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 2.9 | 16.3% | 30 | 0.6% | 35 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 1 | 2.7 | 16.3% | 30 | 0.44% | 38 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 2.4 | 14.7% | 27 | 0.43% | 36 | 0.57% |
| 70+ | 1 | 1.7 | 12% | 22 | 0.35% | 31 | 0.49% |
| All ages | 12 | 15.7 | 100% | 184 | 0.41% | 245 | 0.54% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 11382 | 48266 | 297 | 70 | 422 | 607 |
| January 26 2021 | 11417 | 48422 | 315 | 70 | 412 | 600 |
| January 27 2021 | 11458 | 48566 | 320 | 70 | 433 | 556 |
| January 28 2021 | 11503 | 48711 | 326 | 71 | 425 | 576 |
| January 29 2021 | 11647 | 48927 | 330 | 71 | 545 | 687 |
| January 30 2021 | 11687 | 49068 | 331 | 72 | 524 | 682 |
| January 31 2021 | 11728 | 49148 | 331 | 73 | 535 | 703 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.6 | 6% | 32 | 0.27% | 47 | 0.4% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 13.1 | 20.7% | 111 | 0.67% | 141 | 0.85% |
| 20-29 | 5 | 16.7 | 26.2% | 140 | 0.66% | 161 | 0.76% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 6.4 | 11.4% | 61 | 0.45% | 88 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 6.4 | 12% | 64 | 0.47% | 87 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 7.0 | 11.2% | 60 | 0.42% | 80 | 0.56% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 4.0 | 6.9% | 37 | 0.26% | 54 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 7 | 4.0 | 5.6% | 30 | 0.23% | 45 | 0.35% |
| All ages | 41 | 61.3 | 100% | 535 | 0.45% | 703 | 0.59% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 37285 | 308444 | 1124 | 229 | 1159 | 1759 |
| January 26 2021 | 37352 | 309153 | 1128 | 240 | 1055 | 1719 |
| January 27 2021 | 37396 | 309826 | 1133 | 240 | 963 | 1653 |
| January 28 2021 | 37600 | 310610 | 1138 | 244 | 1078 | 1613 |
| January 29 2021 | 37707 | 311398 | 1139 | 245 | 1144 | 1581 |
| January 30 2021 | 37848 | 311926 | 1146 | 251 | 1259 | 1551 |
| January 31 2021 | 37949 | 312511 | 1151 | 251 | 1203 | 1516 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 5.6 | 4.8% | 58 | 0.1% | 72 | 0.12% |
| 10-19 | 21 | 17.6 | 14.9% | 179 | 0.25% | 215 | 0.3% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 30.6 | 26.5% | 319 | 0.31% | 403 | 0.39% |
| 30-39 | 18 | 15.9 | 15.6% | 188 | 0.25% | 245 | 0.32% |
| 40-49 | 6 | 12.7 | 12.3% | 148 | 0.23% | 187 | 0.29% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 15.4 | 14.2% | 171 | 0.26% | 211 | 0.32% |
| 60-69 | 7 | 6.6 | 6.9% | 83 | 0.15% | 107 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.7 | 4.7% | 57 | 0.12% | 76 | 0.15% |
| All ages | 101 | 108.0 | 100% | 1203 | 0.22% | 1516 | 0.28% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 25 2021 | 533917 | 2477588 | 23748 | 5699 | 15666 | 25571 |
| January 26 2021 | 535218 | 2481735 | 23883 | 5753 | 15030 | 24082 |
| January 27 2021 | 536546 | 2486960 | 23976 | 5787 | 14752 | 23276 |
| January 28 2021 | 538348 | 2493144 | 24063 | 5811 | 15471 | 22366 |
| January 29 2021 | 539915 | 2498517 | 24154 | 5860 | 15513 | 21664 |
| January 30 2021 | 541408 | 2503387 | 24243 | 5893 | 15484 | 21220 |
| January 31 2021 | 542415 | 2507600 | 24298 | 5896 | 14314 | 20621 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 77 | 85.6 | 6.2% | 890 | 0.14% | 1251 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 130 | 174.4 | 12.9% | 1846 | 0.24% | 2668 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 157 | 209.7 | 15.7% | 2241 | 0.3% | 3286 | 0.43% |
| 30-39 | 154 | 195.9 | 14.9% | 2127 | 0.28% | 3090 | 0.41% |
| 40-49 | 136 | 198.6 | 14.2% | 2027 | 0.29% | 2866 | 0.41% |
| 50-59 | 146 | 200.3 | 14.8% | 2124 | 0.26% | 3060 | 0.38% |
| 60-69 | 96 | 148.7 | 11.3% | 1619 | 0.21% | 2307 | 0.3% |
| 70+ | 111 | 136.0 | 10.1% | 1440 | 0.22% | 2093 | 0.33% |
| All ages | 1007 | 1349.1 | 100% | 14314 | 0.25% | 20621 | 0.35% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42.8 | 42.6 | 42.5 | 29.1 | 36.6 | 20% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 47.8 | 20.1 | 29.3 | 27.2% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 54.2 | 15.7 | 22.4 | 30.9% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59.5 | 85.2 | 75.7 | 61.3 | 37.3 | 30% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27.7 | 30.3 | 38.8 | 108 | 120.9 | 14.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.4 | 35.2 | 43.4 | 1349.1 | 1807.7 | 22.1% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 1.5 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.61 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-02-21 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 5032"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges